One of these things I like the most about history is that under the historical scope of things, the world -as complex as it is – seems like a perpetual proof of concept with distinguished versions, or iteration or era if you like. I’d rather call them cycles.
When we look closely we can recognize the life-cycle of any iteration, with staple events or benchmarks of the contemporary times, and contemporary social practices which can provide more context to the big events happening at these times.
What if we were at the end of an era, and in this post I would argue that we are. And I am quite confident that anyone reading this post, at the moment these events occur, already thought of this elephant in the room prior to reading this text.
We are witnessing the end of the first truly global empire, the American empire, and we see it fall.
As main representative event we have the fight of the century between the old and the new worlds. English boxing VS Mixed Martial Arts (MMA).
The first is a bestial show where you watch two strong men punching each other until exhaustion or knock-out, and the second is one of the most savage and violent physical disciplines, born out of the mix of the most lethal martial arts techniques.
The former, much slower than the latter, has given its best years and has seen its peak with a prophet, then saw its end with an illiterate businessman. MMA prays to god money from the cradle.
It’s by all means the biggest sports show the American era could have given us. It is enough to see Bloomberg writing about a boxing fight in its business analysis section (not sports): Link.
By all means the US has also given us the most extraordinary political of the shows. It is by far the biggest televised political failure in the human modern history, led by the ultimate reality TV star.
Probably the future most studied case in social, political and history classes.
In this blog post I will try to explain the presidency of Donald J. Trump under a new scope where we will try to find a pattern in the days to come.
Many texts have been written to explain how this event occurred, for some as a sort of justification for lack of self diagnosis. Hundreds of words have been spent to describe the events as they were dropping in day-by-day, uncovering the inner works of high level politics in the US.
In the following I will discuss the possible and likely short and mid-term consequences of the elections of Donald J. Trump on the Geo-political level.
Who would have predicted the Russians winning the cold war after all.
Putin is no hero, since he is the weakest of his the American commercial antagonists namely China, Germany, Japan and to a lesser extent India and Iran. These also coincide with former centers of leading civilizations.
An old KGB agent took advantage of a weak spot which is nothing else but the very person of Trump. A caricature of an American greedy showman who is clearly not qualified for this job.
Putin was too insignificant and incapable of doing any harm under any strong American administration, so he was able to operate under the radar. He was busy building his empire (the financial one), trying to prove he exists on the international scene is his own lame way.
Obama described the eyes of a guy who lost his mind because of excess of power referring to Putin, or was it Erdogan, or Assad? We might get back to that.
I hope I will have time to try to discuss a framework to assess the impact of the presidency of Donald J. Trump on the macro-economic level.
The market has become single, and the market is far too big for the old kind of world. We will hopefully discuss one day the emergence of original extra-governmental human organizations. The human-made virtual world.
It is gonna be Showtime on planet Earth.
1. The fall of the American empire:
We will start from the most general point which is in this case, the obvious fall of the classic American empire, the one we always knew as we see the “Chute libre” (or free fall) of its institutions.
The US’ influence is permanently damaged because Trump is sending explicit messages not only to the few nations and persons that he namely mentioned. Thanks to internet, these messages are sent to every human being as it affects their lives as much as it affects Americans’.
Trump is literally sending a very explicit signs to virtually every human on earth telling them that the USA will no longer be this steady and strong ally, whoever you are, wherever you are, and whatever you did before.
Trump is tweeting what he has on top of his mind because he thinks that global politics is like a reality TV show where you have to keep the audience entertained. His audience are European and Asian leaders, but also virtually every human being on planet Earth with a phone, including governments members, military forces, strategists, bankers, terrorists, hustlers and war criminals.
He tells his audience that they are living in a world shaped since decades by the sole commercial interest of the American empire.
Allies and enemies on all the levels of every respectable country must have an emergency plan for when their most important military ally, trade partner, president picker, money supplier and supreme protector, the US, is no longer replying to non-short-term commercial deals.
It is too early for uninformed people like myself to be aware of any major geopolitical move. But it is clear in my understanding that the US has just proven itself replaceable for most of the things it claimed.
Trump just proved that such a powerful partner can reveal to be a burden when things go out of the political script. When both your allies and your antagonists don’t expect you to be there when needed, you lost your turn.
It is now urgent to understand what any violent choc, hopefully unlikely, would imply for the most heavily armed nation in human history. The fall of the Soviet union armed that whole region for decades. The US is already deploying its weaponry at remote regions like the Middle East, and Asia, but also inside of the US itself with what is called a militarized police force.
2. Institutional racism
A decade or so after the second world war, the Europeans as former colonization forces, and the US as savior, heir to the iron throne and new leader of the free world, tried to tackle several issues in order to compete with the Soviet Union in an unprecedented race to militarization. One like humans have never seen before.
The UK and France maintained strong ties to their crown gems as they established commercial partnerships, sometimes restrictive, with the rulers of these countries; so they were able to sell and produce their cheap cars, and import labor (first unskilled and later extremely skilled).
With the blessing of the god Oil, the US started to look for anchors in the region too, and soon enough found strong allies and reliable dictators generally inherited from the French and the British.
They also succeeded to create a fog around the colonial period where what we can call now genocides and modern war crimes have occurred. People in their home lands suffered for decades.
Most importantly they brilliantly created and maintained two narratives: One, the eternal enemy of the Jews are the Arabs (and vice versa). Two, the former colonies deserve the dictatorships they have.
These two narratives are the fundamental corner stone of the world that witnessed the election of Donald J. Trump.
His election triggered a wave of obviously racist and xenophobic measures that uncovered the double standards applied. Black Americans are the very people who show us to what extent the rich countries base their modern societies on institutional racism. They pay the price with their lives, and Black Americans are very rightfully scared of the re-emergence of former white masters.
In the US we have seen the gathering of KKK and Nazi crowds, but we have also seen the lethargy of the police officers, and the support of the fascists by the president himself.
Uncovered antisemitism, Islamophobia, racism and sexism in the ranks of the American people, the American police force, the the American political leaders and the American military forces.
“I think that racism is being aware that you are part of a structure and not doing anything about it.”
In Europe, the holocaust, or the last German pogrom, or the last European Jewish genocide left removable marks of guilt in the European people’s mind. The European Jews had Israel and could kill and segregate as many Palestinians as they wanted in the name of the perpetual Arab-Jewish rivalry.
The Jews that were to be killed in the first place in Europe are now being replaced by some people who actually look and are persecuted a lot like Jews in the 1930s, Muslims.
These same Muslims are escaping from their homes because of the corrupted rulers they have back in their countries.
Same rulers which were tolerated and most often supported by the UK, France and the US, as long as they could keep their people quiet and on leash. They did.
I witnessed such a dictatorship and I saw a ruler creating a cultural erosion to preserve his powers over two decades. Propaganda was injected in the minds of the youngest for more than that, so rulers could create obedient and non-critical citizen. The people in Tunisia woke up few years after it was discovered that the dictator’s son-in-law had a tiger in his palace, and after police became a state in the state.
The one unlucky to be born there and who can’t get a VISA, which is the sesame to a decent life in the free lands and a huge administrative wall, would have to find a boat to take him to Europe, or until recently to Syria.
Fairness and equal opportunities are very hard to quantify in our modern complex societies, but we still can find benchmarks.
Now if you think of the existent system as fair for all, just do one single operation. Compare the number of illegal people in Europe and in the US, and the number of illegal Europeans and Americans in the rest of the world. It’s many to zero. That’s not fair. That’s racism.
Using its superior power to limit the power of one people to practice its right of self-determination is a crime. If such decision is driven by economic and racist motives, it becomes a tragedy.
Racism is the plague that would destroy the Western world at the beginning of this century, like it nearly destroyed the German society in the previous century.
“Kein mensch ist illegal” is as important as “All men are born free”.
As contemporary thinkers, we might have to seriously think of a world where national borders are considered as obsolete as dangerous.
We have inclusive alternatives to build new human systems keeping in mind that as long as long inequalities in-between “countries” would exist, weapons would be still remain necessary.
The previous generations fucked us up, and we have to truly understand how to treat the real illness. Money in this case isn’t the illness, nor the treatment, it is however as abundant as it has never been before.
Money has to be redesigned as fuel, rather than as a commodity.
3. Third-World Countrism
If you feed trolls, someone will feed your trolls back.
I mean it.
At more than a single occasion we have seen the American president behaving in a manner that was not only familiar, but also very characteristic of what people living in dictatorships can identify as their rulers.
The persona of the corrupt leader.
Donald J. Trump being a very bad actor, and more of an unhinged TV celebrity, he enacts the very extreme caricature of what a despotic leader might look like if he was leading the most powerful empire that planet Earth has ever seen. He can’t play indefinitely the role of the serious politician because he is not trained as a professional one. Acting Presidential is acting.
This is not a rare phenomena though, the one of having bad leaders taking advantage of easy-to-bend social contracts in many regions on the planet.
Outside of the democratic rich world, very few people successfully implemented democratic organizations among their states. Fewer than one could expect.
Most often the totalitarian regimes were known to have close ties to foreign powers, which meddled into elections, or simply replaced one leader by another overnight, or supported repressive efforts by providing weapons and tactical gear for police forces. Please forgive me if I can’t attach links, but it is very easy to google any of these topics and go just a bit out of the newspapers.
The real issue has never been about races, but rather about finding a way to peacefully interact between and among different populations. This proved to be hard over human history because we are intrinsically different, and the barriers for this Utopian world are still high, but likely reachable.
After all, we all do speak English.
It has never been about elections or short term interest. We must build tools for the ones after us, so they accelerate the process we are starting today.
Social cohesion can scale up in a friction-less world.
We must care, until no one would care about becoming to ruling leader.
We have internet. We are internet.
That’s it all folks!!
Before closing this post, I would like to point to this entertaining article: DONALD TRUMP’S LONG, STRANGE RELATIONSHIP WITH MMA